Hey Edge readers,

Every market has its rhythm, and in crypto, the 4-year cycle is one of the most watched patterns out there. It doesn’t predict the future, but it helps us make sense of where we’ve been and what might lie ahead. This week, we’re taking a closer look at where we are in that cycle right now, and what the structure tells us about the road ahead for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and beyond.

Stay sharp. 🫡

-The Exponential team

The 4-year cycle, explained

Bitcoin’s market tends to move in 4-year cycles, largely driven by the halving, a programmed event that cuts the supply of new BTC in half every four years. With less supply entering the market and demand often rising, this shift can kick off powerful trends.

Each cycle typically follows four phases:

• Accumulation: Prices are low and sentiment is bearish, but long-term buyers quietly step in.

• Growth: Momentum builds as the halving approaches, pushing BTC toward previous highs.

• Bubble: A breakout into new all-time highs sparks rapid, euphoric price increases.

• Crash: After the peak, sharp corrections follow, where 40-80% drawdowns are possible.

The exact timing varies, but this structure has repeated across past cycles. Knowing where we are in this pattern can offer helpful context, even if the future never plays out exactly the same.

Bitcoin: Where we are in the current cycle

This cycle likely began in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out around $15,000. Since then, the market has climbed steadily, without the wild swings we saw in earlier cycles. Corrections have mostly been in the range of 20–30%, which is relatively mild by crypto standards. That shift in volatility suggests that institutional players may now be providing stability, buying during dips and helping to reduce the sharp sell-offs typically driven by retail panic.

We’ve already seen some distinct phases play out in this cycle:

• Mid-2023: Bitcoin moved sideways for several months, dipping roughly 20%, a cooling-off period after initial gains.

• Early 2024: A strong rally pushed BTC into new highs, marking the first major leg of the expansion.

• August 2024: A sharper correction followed, with a ~30% drawdown that reset momentum and sentiment.

• Today (June 2025): The market is back in an uptrend, with BTC sitting in month 31 of the cycle, historically when momentum builds toward a final peak.

  

  BTC monthly chart from Nov 2022 - Jun 2025

But here’s the catch: the sentiment this time around doesn’t match the tops of previous cycles. In past peaks, like 2017 and 2021, we saw clear signs of mania: retail FOMO, extreme leverage, and mainstream media saturation. Sentiment indicators like the Fear & Greed Index routinely pushed into the 90–95 range, signaling extreme greed. This time, despite Bitcoin trading near all-time highs, the index sits at just 54, squarely in neutral territory. That contrast has led some analysts to consider whether this cycle is unfolding more gradually, possibly stretching longer than previous ones.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to top out around month 33 to 35 of the cycle, which would imply a potential high sometime around October. But if this cycle stretches further, into 39 months or more, we could be looking at a peak closer to February or March of next year. That would make room for one more strong leg up, fueled by ongoing ETF flows, corporate treasury moves, and a supportive macro backdrop.

Where does that leave us? Based on historical patterns, we may be entering the later stages of the current cycle. A breakout above the $110K range could open the door to further upside, but timing remains uncertain. In past cycles, late-stage rallies have moved quickly, but there’s no guarantee this one will follow the same script. Whether momentum builds this summer or stretches into next year, it’s a phase worth watching closely.

Ethereum and altcoins angle

Moving on from Bitcoin, in every cycle one of the most anticipated moments for crypto investors is “altseason” the period when Ethereum and altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin. Historically, this phase comes after Bitcoin tops or stabilizes, and capital starts rotating into higher-risk assets. Let’s explore whether we’re nearing that point by looking at key metrics like Bitcoin dominance and ETH/BTC performance.

Bitcoin dominance

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), the metric that shows Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market, is currently about 63–65%, levels we haven’t seen since 2021 . In past cycles, altseason only followed after BTC.D broke down below roughly 58%, with a sustained slide under 50% marking the start of broader altcoin rallies. Until that breakdown happens, most capital remains tied up in Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC technical snapshot

The ETH/BTC ratio is a simple but powerful indicator that shows how Ethereum is performing relative to Bitcoin. When the ratio goes up, it means Ethereum is gaining value faster than Bitcoin, often an early sign that investors are becoming more comfortable with risk and rotating into altcoins. Historically, a sustained rise in ETH/BTC has marked the beginning of “altseason,”.

Investors watching for altseason should look for ETH/BTC to break above key resistance levels (like 0.05) and trend upward, especially if this move is paired with a drop in Bitcoin dominance. This shift suggests the market is entering a new phase where capital starts flowing into Ethereum and other altcoins more aggressively.

What to watch

• BTC.D needs to break below 60%, and preferably drop toward 54%, to open the door for altseason.

• ETH/BTC confirmation above 0.05 BTC, backed by improved momentum, would likely follow that shift and signal broader rotation.

Wrap-up: Where does that leave us?
Markets are unpredictable, but based on metrics and history, it looks like we are in the final third of the 4-year cycle, possibly months away from a top, or just entering the blowoff phase. BTC remains in a relatively calm uptrend, ETH is lagging but setting up for rotation, and altcoins are waiting for their moment.

Whether the top comes in October or extends into early 2026, what matters most is understanding the context, not chasing price. Cycles don’t repeat, but they often rhyme. Keeping an eye on structure, sentiment, and capital flows can help you navigate with more clarity and less noise.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research.

In the news 🗞️

• Coinbase Acquires Liquifi to Streamline Token Launches: Coinbase has acquired token management startup Liquifi to support early-stage Web3 teams and integrate its tools into Coinbase Prime. The move follows Coinbase’s $2.9B Deribit acquisition and aligns with its push to simplify token launches and expand institutional offerings.

• Botanix Launches Bitcoin L2 Mainnet with Major Integrations: Botanix’s EVM-compatible Bitcoin Layer 2 has gone live with support from Chainlink, Fireblocks, and GMX, offering a decentralized, yield-driven DeFi experience. The mainnet introduces native sBTC rewards and aims to onboard Bitcoiners into DeFi through its Bitcoin 2100 campaign.

• Plume Network Hits $110M TVL as RWA Sector Booms: RWA-focused blockchain Plume has surged 200% in deposits this month, hitting $110M TVL amid sector-wide growth to $13B. With over 200 protocols launched since June, Plume is emerging as a leading hub for tokenized real-world assets despite recent price struggles.

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